If anybody told me there were going to be THREE Game 7s in the Conference Semifinals of the playoffs, I would've told them they were insane. Last time I saw three Game 7s in one round was last year's FIRST ROUND.
And based on statistics alone, the home team has somewhere around an 80-90% chance of winning Game 7.
Pistons vs. Cavs: I initially predicted a sweep in favor of the Pistons, due to their stingy defense and the Cavs' collective playoff inexperience (primarily the fact that this is LeBron's first career playoff run). Detroit wins the first two at home, making a sweep more likely. Then a key Cavs player has to leave the team on the next three games due to the death of his younger brother. This proves that a key part of the playoffs is about teams perservering through adversity. The Cavs wear strips of black tape on their jerseys in memory of their teammate's fallen brother in each of the next four games (that strip of black tape may stay on their jerseys in Game 7, as it seems to be not only a memorial sign, but also a good-luck charm). After the untimely death of Larry Hughes' younger brother, the Cavs keep his jersey hanging up in his spot in their Locker Room throughout the game, almost as if it was Larry Hughes, himself, that had died instead of his younger brother, and bounce back to win Games 3 and 4. Rasheed "GuaranSheed" a win in Game 4, and almost every time a Pistons victory is "GuaranSheed", the Pistons win that game. Turns out this is the first "GuaranSheed" game the Pistons lose. Then, surprisingly, the Cavs steal Game 5 in the Palace, where the home team lost the fewest times during the Regular Season. Cavs up 3-2. The Pistons don't go down without a fight. They know how to play with their backs against the wall. They've shown that throughout the last few postseasons. Now Game 7 is in approximately 10 minutes on ABC. Winner takes Miami in the Conference Finals. Detroit has the advantage over Miami, as they know how to guard Shaq without using the controversial "Hack-a-Shaq". Cleveland, on the other hand, may have to resort to using "Hack-a-Shaq" to beat Miami. Also note that only 11 times in NBA History has a team down 2-0 come back to win a best-of-seven playoff series. The last three occurrances of that actually happened in the last two post-seasons: In 2004, the then-defending Champions San Antonio Spurs had a 2-0 lead over the Lakers, but the Lakers won the next two at home, and Derek Fisher's game-winning shot at 0.4 seconds left in Game 5 gave the Lakers the momentum needed to close out Game 6, making the Spurs have to resort to Hack-a-Shaq just to try and force a Game 7 (Coach Pop had never had to resort to Hack-a-Shaq in the past, though). Then last year in the first round, the Mavs lost the first two games at home against the T-Mac and Yao Ming-led Houston Rockets, then bounced back to steal back the next two games on the road to take back Homecourt. After that, the home team won the next three games, meaning the Mavs won that one in 7. In that same round, the Chicago Bulls had the Washington Wizards at a 2-0 lead. Then, the Wizards came back to win that series.
My Detroit/Cleveland Game 7 prediction: Detroit wins.
Spurs vs. Mavs: All season long, division (and in-state) rivals San Antonio and Dallas have been locked in a battle for not only the Southwest Division title, but also the number 1 seed in the playoffs. Due to the fucked-up playoff seeding, the teams with the best win-loss records in the Western Conference have to end up facing each other in the Western Conference SEMIFINALS! Not only that, but both teams are 60-win teams. With the exception of Game 2, each game this series has gone down to the wire. In fact, if just one play in each of the close games went differently, we'd most likely be seeing this series over already, with a shitload of different possible results. Dallas may have won the series in a sweep; either team may have won in 5. Either team may have won in 6. San Antonio may have had the series tied going into Game 5. San Antonio may have had a 3-2 lead over Dallas going into Game 6. The point is, now this series is everything it was hyped to be. Please note that whoever wins this Game 7 gets Homecourt Advantage in the Western Conference Finals, due to the fact that both teams have the best two records in the Western Conference.
As it turns out, Dallas had a 3-1 lead over the defending champs going into Game 5. And as NBA Playoff history shows, only 8 times has a team down 3-1 come back to win that same playoff series. The last two occurances actually happened 3 years apart from each other: In 2003, the Detroit Pistons were trailing the Orlando Magic 3-1, but came back to win that same series (this was the season before they got Rasheed Wallace, by the way). And just this year in the last round, the Los Angeles Lakers had the Phoenix Suns right where they wanted them at 3-1. As we all witnessed just a few weeks ago, the Suns bounced back and took the next three games, thus avoiding the much-anticipated "Hallway Series" between the Lakers and the Clippers. The Spurs have never been involved in such a comeback, and neither have the Mavs. However, the last time the defending champions ever accomplished this miraculous feat was back in 1995, when the Barkley-led Phoenix Suns had the then-defending champions, Houston Rockets, at a 3-1 lead. That year, not only did the Hakeem Olajuwon-led Rockets come back to win that same series, but they also repeated as NBA champions that same year. A notable member of that Rockets roster was Robert "Big Shot Bob" Horry, who happens to be on the Spurs roster right now. This time, the Spurs have the better chance at closing out, as Game 7 is on their home floor. I remember watching Game 5 of the Spurs/Mavs series, and after the game, the TV camera pointed to a fan who carried a sign that said "Never underestimate the heart of a Champion." I stated earlier in this thread that true champions know how to win when their backs are against the wall. The Spurs have certainly played with the heart of a true champion in Game 5, and also did so in Game 6. The Mavs had two golden opportunities to eliminate the defending champions, but both times, Dirk Nowitzki choked during crunch time. Will the Mavs choke for the third straight game? Can the Spurs pull off what the Rockets did in 1995? Or will we see a championship reign end right before our very eyes for the fourth consecutive season?
My San Antonio/Dallas prediction: San Antonio wins.
Suns vs. Clippers: This series has been marked by both teams alternating wins. Should the trend continue, that means Phoenix wins this series. However, that does not mean the Clippers cannot break this trend. This has been a pretty competitive series from the word "go". Sam Cassell's been in quite a few Game 7s, so he should be able to lead the Clippers into winning this one, either by his stats, or otherwise. Should the Clips win this one, it will be a milestone for the franchise, as it will be the first time in franchise history that the Clips make the Conference Finals. If the Suns win, they'll be set for a rematch from last year's playoffs against either the Mavs or the Spurs.
My Phoenix/LA Clippers prediction: LA Clippers win.
The Western Conference Semifinals Game 7s are packaged as a double-header tomorrow night on TNT, starting at 8pm Eastern Time, with the Spurs/Mavs Game 7. Tomorrow night decides the Western Conference Finals match-up.
Last year, either during the Heat/Pistons Game 7 or after the Game 6, Magic Johnson basically said that for a team to win a Game 7, the role-players on that team have to step up and play like stars, while the team's stars have to play like superstars. I couldn't agree with that any more than I do right now. Game 7 is THE do-or-die game of the playoffs, and a team must give everything they have to win it, or else they get sent fishing.
As for the Draft Lottery...the lottery results will be shown this Tuesday at 7:30pm Eastern on ESPN. Although the teams not in the playoffs are supposed to be represented in the Draft Lottery, one team that DID make the playoffs will be, which means a non-playoff team gave up their own First Round Draft Pick by way of a trade. Turns out that non-playoff team that gave up their own First Round Draft Pick in a trade was the New York Knicks; They gave that pick to the Chicago Bulls in the Eddy Curry trade. The Bulls did end up making the playoffs, but were a first round exit. Now it's the Bulls who have the second best shot at winning the Lottery. Here's the teams, in order of chances of winning it from best to worst.
Portland TrailBlazersChicago Bulls (by way of trade from the New York Knicks)Charlotte BobcatsAtlanta HawksTornoto RaptorsMinnesota TimberwolvesBoston CelticsHouston RocketsGolden State WarriorsSeattle SuperSonicsOrlando MagicNew Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets (I'm not sure whether they'll still be playing home games in Oklahoma City next season or all their home games in New Orleans, though)Philadelphia 76ersUtah JazzIt's a weighted system, and only the top 3 picks are decided by the lottery to ensure that teams drop no more than 3 positions lower than their projected position. Last year, the Bucks beat the odds. So make your Lottery predictions.
Oh well, better luck next year. 
